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The Mortgage Bankers Association's latest monthly forecast showed an expectation of higher originations for refinances for the current quarter, but made no other changes in its forecast horizon that extends through 2028.
Refinance originations for the three months that ended March 31 was revised upwards by 8.4% to $207 billion in its forecast dated Monday and released Wednesday. The revised amount was 40% higher than a year earlier.
The March 20 forecast for purchase originations was entirely untouched. The MBA said it continues to expect them to fall 2.2% to $359 billion in the second quarter.
The upward revision on refinances in the second quarter translated into a 2.1% upward revision for refinances for the year and a mere 0.7% upward revision of the year's total originations.
For the year, the MBA said it expects total originations to rise 6.7% to $2.19 trillion. Refinances are expected to rise 11% to $769 billion, while purchases are expected to rise 4.6% to $1.42 trillion.
The MBA's monthly forecasts cover a wide range of economic metrics, and its value is enhanced by a long track record of consistent, comprehensive data and regular monthly revisions.
In the last two months the MBA has been making typical changes covering numerous quarters for broad economic measures like Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and inflation — numbers played with by a host of economists around the world.
On the other hand, the MBA pretty much has the sandbox to itself in forecasting mortgage originations by quarters individually for purchases and refinances.
The MBA usually publishes commentary on its forecasts, but typically it's not available to the public until several days to a week after the forecast date. The latest commentary was dated March 30.
The MBA's March 30 commentary acknowledged that the Iran war was expected to have widespread impacts on the U.S. economy, and its March 23 forecast revised its expectations of GDP growth downward by 40 basis points for 2026, 30 bps for 2027 and 10 bps for 2028.
The March 23 forecast also made downward revisions for purchase and refinance mortgage originations, but only for the remainder of 2026.
The result for the year was that the MBA revised originations downward by 2.6% for purchases and 0.9% for refinances.
The MBA also publishes the Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, which gives a more recent view of trends before the forecast commentary.
The survey for the week ending April 17 released Wednesday showed the Refinance Index rose 6% from a week earlier, and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 10%.
"Mortgage rates declined last week as financial markets responded positively to the Middle East ceasefire and the lower trend in oil prices, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 6.35%," Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said.
"Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, housing demand is being supported by a still resilient job market, and homebuyers are experiencing a buyer's market in most of the country given the higher levels of inventory relative to last year," he said.
FreddieMac data showed the 30-year fixed rate was 5.98% Feb. 26, two days before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, and down from 6.94% a year earlier. The rate rose to 6.00% March 5 and peaked at 6.46% April 2. By Thursday (April 23) it had fallen to 6.23%.
Contact Jim DuPlessis at Jim.DuPlessis@arc-network.com.
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