Credit: Mike Mareen/Adobe Stock
The Mortgage Bankers Association has raised its forecasts for commercial real estate loan production over the next two years, while its first forecast for 2027 shows a decline.
The MBA’s Commercial Real Estate Finance (CREF) Forecast released Sunday shows total commercial production rising 34% to $667 billion this year and rising 24% to $827 billion in 2026. But in 2027 it expects originations will fall 6% to $781 billion.
“The CRE lending market has remained strong with new originations increasing year-over-year during the first six months of 2025,” Judie Ricks, the MBA’s assistant vice president of CREF research, said. “The multifamily market experienced similar strength in the first half of the year that is expected to continue into 2026.”
In February, the MBA had forecast that total production would rise 16% to $583 billion this year and rise 22% to $709 billion in 2026.
The MBA’s Oct. 19 forecasts for multifamily production changed little, but it raised its estimates for other types of commercial real estate loans by about 40% for each year.
The MBA now forecasts multifamily loans will rise 24% to $359 billion this year, 16% to $417 billion in 2026 and then flattening to $422 billion in 2027.
Other production is expected to rise 47% to $308 billion this year and 33% to $410 in 2026 before falling 12% to $359 billion in 2027.
The MBA has also reported the nation’s portfolio balance for commercial real estate was $4.88 trillion as of June 30, up 1% from March 31. Multifamily mortgages rose 1.3% to $2.19 trillion.
By comparison, credit unions held $172.6 billion in commercial real estate loans on June 30, up 2.9% from three months earlier. Multifamily rose 3.2% to $39.8 billion, according to NCUA data pulled from Callahan's Peer Suite.
Contact Jim DuPlessis at JDuPlessis@cutimes.com.
© Arc, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to TMSalesOperations@arc-network.com. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.