WASHINGTON — The only thing scarier than the ghouls this Halloween will likely be the various predictions and methodologies for reaching those predictions for the 2006 elections.
One recent report said Republicans can expect gains in Congress simply because they have raised more money than the Democrats. "It is really, we call it around here, silly season and a lot of people are speculating one way or the other," CUNA Senior Vice President of Political Affairs Richard Gose commented. "Obviously Democrats have momentum going into this election. There's no doubt about that. There are four or five seats the Republicans have essentially conceded to the Democrats, which will take their number down from 15 to 10 in the House (needed for the majority).
"When you look at the vulnerable versus the non-vulnerable, most all those vulnerables are in the Republican column, it's just whether the Democrats can run the table on those and pick up a few more." Pundits have said the Democrats could pick up anywhere from five to 50 seats.
Gose suggested that credit unions keep a vigilant eye out for some of the races. "A lot of these races are tightening up. There are people who, two weeks ago, had double-digit leads. Those leads are now showing 4%, 3%, in the margin of error," he said.
States to watch for in the House are Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Indiana. "Those four states, I think more than any four states, are going to tell you if Republicans have a chance to hold on because in each one of those states there are at least two or three endangered Republicans and if the Democrats can get two or more in a couple of those states, they're well on their way to taking back the House," Gose, who has served in campaigns, said.
Initially, pundits were calling the Senate for the Democrats, but with New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez' seat in play, it "might be one of the bright spots" for Republicans on election night, according to Gose. In the battle to replace Senator Bill Frist (R) in Tennessee, he said he would "flip a coin." In Ohio, Pennsylvania, Montana, and Rhode Island, Republicans are in real danger of losing seats. The Dems only need five to tie it up and six for control. "There again it's going to be a nail-biter down to the wire. A lot of it is going to hinge on how Republicans actually do in New Jersey," he said.
One interesting new dynamic thrown into this year's election mix is the growing popularity of "no excuse" early voting and mail-in voting; Oregon has no brick and mortar voting places this election and several counties in Washington State have gone to mail-in, according to Gose. Early voting has been open a month in some states. "A lot of folks will have made their decisions before a lot of this breaking news so it's going to be an interesting election," he pointed out; early votes cannot be changed. –scooke@cutimes.com
© Arc, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to TMSalesOperations@arc-network.com. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.