Low energy prices are important to the success of U.S.businesses, so it's no surprise that most financial pros said theybelieve the drop in crude oil prices has helpedthe U.S. economy.

|

On the other hand, if oil prices fall as low as $30 a barrel, many of the sameprofessionals said they worry a global recession could follow.

|

That, in turn, would likely hurt the portfolios of individualinvestors as well as the investments of retirement funds, many ofwhich include energy stocks or funds.

|

For instance, according to a 2011 Sonecon report, oil andnatural gas stocks were on average 4.6% of state pension fundassets, providing 15.7% of returns. Also, the American PetroleumInstitute reported last year that private and public pension andretirement plans hold 46.8% of the shares in U.S. natural gas andoil companies.

|

Retirees and those managing pension and other retirement plansmight be interested to learn that some 68% of pros questioned inthe Convergex “Oil Impact Survey” said they believe oilprices will continue to fall.

|

Forty-three percent expect the price for a barrel to end up thisyear at between $40 and $60, while 42% predict a price between $60and $80. Compare that to last month's survey when 89% said thefinal price for a barrel of oil would be above $60. That Decembersurvey also revealed that 47% of the pros predicted that the finalprice would be at least $80 a barrel.

|

As of earlier this month, the price for a barrel of WTI crudeoil was $46.06. Compare that to $108 per barrel last June.

|

“In just one month, financial industry professionals havedramatically lowered their expectations for oil prices in 2015,”Nicholas Colas, Convergex chief market strategist, said in astatement. “While investors say that the drop in oil prices hasbeen a net positive thus far, (this) forecast is less sunny. Wehave here a clear warning of the impact if prices continue to fall– and our respondents think they will.”

|

For now, 66% of the respondents say falling oil prices have sofar had a positive or very positive impact on the U.S. economy, but55% predict a negative or very negative impact on the U.S. labormarket if oil prices continue to fall.

|

The survey was taken between Jan. 13 and Jan. 15. More than 300respondents participated including asset managers, bankers,broker-dealers and hedge fund managers.

Complete your profile to continue reading and get FREE access to CUTimes.com, part of your ALM digital membership.

  • Critical CUTimes.com information including comprehensive product and service provider listings via the Marketplace Directory, CU Careers, resources from industry leaders, webcasts, and breaking news, analysis and more with our informative Newsletters.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and CU Times events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including Law.com and GlobeSt.com.
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.