Johnston: Administration's Job Prediction 'Somewhat Disingenuous'
Western Corporate Federal Credit Union Vice President of Economic and Market Research Dwight Johnston today called the Obama Administration's prediction of an average net increase of 95,000 jobs per month "somewhat disingenuous."
Johnston credits the increase to an influx of 1.2 million 2010 Census jobs, which works out to 100,000 per month on average, he said. The WesCorp economist has been consistently predicting the increase in his market commentaries, warning readers that payroll figures will improve from early March until the end of June; but by the end of the year, all but 100,000 Census jobs will be gone.
Johnston also blasted the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Feb. 5 announcement it had understated job losses by 1.2 million over the past two years, calling it "ridiculous and embarrassing." He criticized the BLS' adjustments to so-called 'discouraged workers' and seasonal workers. "Playing with modeling" destroys the BLS' credibility, he said.
In his Feb. 8 market commentary, Johnston quoted former Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg, who said the number of workers in the U.S. is exactly the same as in 1999. Yet, there are 29 million more Americans in the workforce.
"That's a shocker folks, and it's a reminder that we might be further down the road to becoming Japan than we realize," he said.