CHICAGO -- Forecasting credit union key measures for year-end and 2010 is a "visceral" and "from the gut" process these days, CUNA top economist Bill Hampel told AICPA National Conference for Credit Unions attendees here.
Thanks to an unprecedented deterioration in credit quality, it's impossible to use historical credit union measures to predict the future, he said.
Regardless, Hampel shared his forecasts through Dec. 31, 2010. Loan growth will close 2009 with an annualized average of 4%, and will climb to 7% by 2010 year-end. Deposits should post a 12% annualized growth rate by Dec. 31, but will slow to 8% by 2010, year-end, he said.
Delinquencies will end the year at 1.7%, but will also decline to 1.5% in 2010. Net charge offs should average 1.2% for 2009 but only 1.0% for 2010.
Bucking the trend, net capital to assets should close 2009 at 9.6%, and will sink further in 2010 to end the year at 9.2%.
The numbers will vary throughout the country, Hampel said, with California, Nevada, Arizona and Utah taking the worst hits.
