NAFCU Sees Lending Back Up After 2007, Continuing Share Growth
ARLINGTON, Va. -- NAFCU Chief Economist Tun Wai has forecast increased lending and savings for 2008.
Even while he expects consumption as a component of gross domestic product to maintain 3.2% from 2006 to 2007 and decline slightly to 2.9% in 2008, Wai said he expects credit union lending to rebound from 5.5% growth by the end of this year to 7.0% in 2008.
At the same time, by 2008, new and existing home sales he predicted would pick back up from 890,000 units to 915,000 units and from 6.1 million units to 6.5 million, respectively. Wai also said that light vehicle sales should start moving in a positive direction again.
Additionally, the unemployment rate will creep upward from 4.5% at the end of last year to 4.8% at the end of 2007 and 4.9% by yearend 2008.
Still on the savings side, Wai said he expects shares to grow 4.5% in 2007, up from 4.1% last year. By 2008, share growth should reach 5.0%. Federally insured credit unions' loan to share ratio will move up from last year's 82.2% to 83.0% by yearend and back down to 80.9% for 2008.
Return on assets at federally insured credit unions will hold steady at 0.82% again by the end of 2007 but reach 0.90% by yearend 2008. The net worth ratio will climb from 11.5% at yearend 2006 to 11.8% this year and 12.1% by the end of next year.