NAFCU Sees Short-Term Stability in Unemployment Figures, Expect 3Q Increase
ARLINGTON, Va. -- According to NAFCU's Macro Data Flash, credit unions can foresee a stable unemployment rate in the first half with a dip in the third quarter.
In the month of February, the Business Establishment Survey reported that non-farm payrolls grew by 97,000 while the services sector added 168,000 new jobs, NAFCU Chief Economist Tun Wai cited. Manufacturing experienced a cut of 14,000 and construction was down 62,000 jobs. "This is the largest cut in construction since January 1991, in large part due to the weather," the Macro Data Flash read.
Revisions to data from December and January showed a total payroll gain of 55,000.
NAFCU also noted that the Household Survey showed the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.5% from 4.6% the previous month. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings increased 0.4% percent to $17.16 and earnings are up 4.1% year-over-year.
Wai said credit unions can look for a stable unemployment rate for the first half of the year and a potentially 5% increase in unemployment in the third quarter. "The lack of a tightening labor market (increasing wage pressures) will allow the FOMC to remain on hold this year," the Macro Data Flash said.